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China has made faster progress than the United States in air purification during the same period.
Release Date:
2020-02-26
As many parts of northern China are grappling with an air pollution crisis, many people are wondering when the country will make significant progress on this issue. However, there is also good news: in terms of air purification, China may move faster than the United States did at a similar stage of development.
As many parts of northern China are grappling with an air pollution crisis, many people are wondering when the country will make significant progress on this issue. However, there is also good news: in terms of air purification, China may move faster than the United States did at a similar stage of development.
It is true that China currently faces severe air pollution: heavy reliance on manufacturing and coal, a rapidly growing vehicle fleet, and insufficient central authority to ensure consistent implementation of national policies at the local level. Yet these same challenges also plagued the United States in the mid-20th century.
Economists’ benchmark—the Environmental Kuznets Curve—shows that as societies move from poverty to prosperity, pollution tends to increase; however, once a certain level of affluence is attained, environmental protection measures are implemented, leading to a decline in pollution. Wealthier citizens, unwilling to breathe polluted air, are willing to sacrifice some economic growth in pursuit of a better environment. Economists such as Gene Grossman have found that the inflection point for environmental improvement typically occurs when per capita annual income reaches between US$17,000 and US$18,000. Given that China’s current per capita annual income has surpassed US$14,000, it is reasonable to conclude that the time is drawing near when air quality improvement can begin in earnest.
In fact, air quality has emerged as a major issue in China. The government’s measures to tackle pollution include shutting down factories and imposing restrictions on vehicle use. These actions are now being implemented more swiftly than in the past, and overall pollution data have improved, while decision-making transparency has also increased. By contrast, the United States first began addressing air pollution in the mid-1960s, when the average annual per capita income was about $28,000. This suggests that the U.S. lagged behind other countries in its efforts to control air pollution.
It is highly unlikely that China will wait until its per capita income has doubled—reaching the level the United States once attained—before it begins to reverse air pollution. In fact, China is likely to make progress even more rapidly. Its proven expertise in infrastructure development provides additional reason for optimism, since tackling pollution requires relocating industrial production away from major cities and rapidly scaling up alternative energy sources. Moreover, compared with the United States, China is better positioned to address carbon emissions, because such solutions can be rolled out directly to the public alongside concrete improvements in daily life and urban visibility, thereby earning their trust. By contrast, the United States lacks comparable options for persuading the public.
Although China has yet to establish itself as a champion in the fight against pollution, its progress in improving air quality may well come much sooner than expected. Looking back at history, it is perhaps the United States that has been the slowest to act.
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